2006: The Year in Advance

The good folks at Birmingham Weekly graciously asked me to look into my crystal ball and predict what the new year might hold for us all, so I offer those ramblings herewith as my two cents' worth on the subject. And fairly priced, at that...

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Few things will dampen a good New Year’s buzz faster than to start invoking the ghosts of Victorian Era poets, but one Algernon Charles Swinburne (1837-1909) coined the ultimate go-to line for prognosticators when he wrote “The past is prologue.” And he’s never been more on the money than this month in which American political history turns the corner from 2005 to 2006.

True, every year has a habit of churning up unexpected events that no sensible person could have predicted in his/her wildest dreams. But the issues already on the plate of sloppy leftovers that the Bush administration must deal with in the next 12 months can’t help but shake up the nation’s political picture in major, and quite possibly historic, ways.

Hey, we can dream, can’t we? Some best-case scenarios:

—The domestic spying scandal has not even begun dribbling out specific unsavory information that will offend a growing percentage of Americans. Ideally, some of those Americans will be in sufficient places of power to make a difference. A completely separate issue: Our friendly telecommunications giants apparently said “No problem!” to the government’s request that they open up easy spy portals to all our most private information. This, without even the courtesy of informing us of same via the small-print disclaimers on the back of our monthly bills. Can you say “Lawsuits”?

—The Congressional bribery (aka Abramoff) scandal will give the spy mess a good run for its money, both in the increasing number of “persons of interest” and the lengths to which resulting court trials (televised, with any luck) will drag on to Election Day 2006 and beyond.

—Karl Rove’s and Scooter Libby’s great CIA leak lapse appeared to be the only big investigatory show in town as recently as October. But it will now have to jockey for headlines in the media as prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald’s ongoing investigation continues to tighten the screws. The second grand jury is already seated for the new phase, and it’s a logical guess that it won’t take Fitz till springtime to bring them up to speed on what they’re looking at and get down to business. Meanwhile, in the background:

—Everybody talks about the weather, and Swinburne’s past-is-prologue pronouncement will be nowhere more true than in matters meteorological. The unprecedented tropical storms of autumn have already given way to historic extreme winter across parts of the globe, and January has barely started. It shouldn’t surprise us if the coming hurricane season in the U.S. is as bad or worse than the one we just faced. And chances are, the government’s profoundly failed response capabilities as highlighted by Katrina will not have improved appreciably in the interim—no matter how extensively former FEMA head Michael Brown (immortalized as “heck of a job” Brownie) fulfills his government consultant contract by listing the ways in which he goofed up.

—The monumental human tragedy that is Iraq, which went from bad to worse in 2005, will stay on that trajectory throughout the current year, presuming that the American military remains there in force. If significant withdrawals begin soon enough, the situation could level off at “worse” for weeks or months at a time. History scholar Juan Cole, the most consistently credible voice on Iraq that I’ve heard yet, this week made 10 detailed predictions for 2006. The short version: compared to Dr. Cole, I’m a giddy optimist.

—The monumental debt the U.S. has run up with China alone, as a result of ill-considered tax cuts, corporate welfare, and runaway war spending may not exactly be called in by the creditor, but the leash of usury will be publicly tugged in some fashion that is, at the very least, embarrassing.

—On a brighter note, there’s technology! The “good guys” of nonprofits and philanthropy will continue to make more computers and other communication devices affordable enough for disadvantaged populations around the world. Not a panacea, by any means, and not without growing pains, including the inevitable clashes over government censorship. But overall, a surprisingly potent force for liberty and for good.

—And on the high-tech home front, the remaining 73 people in the continental U.S. who do not currently maintain a personal blog will see the error of their ways and sign up. As a result, Americans will be so occupied with writing blogs that the reading of blogs will have to be outsourced to a series of Third World countries, whose economies will boom proportionately.

—Concurrent with the blog victory, the remaining 89 people in the continental U.S. who do not currently own an iPod music player (or reasonable cheap clone thereof) will see the error of their ways and buy one. As a result, the music programming of the ravenous MP3 players will have to be outsourced to a series of Third World countries, whose economies (and eclectic tastes in music) will boom proportionately.

In other words, a win-win.